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The Biggest Global Risks for 2026

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| TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

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The Biggest Global Risks for 2026
 

The Biggest Global Risks for 2026Online version

| TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

by Eva Trnakova
QR
1

What options do you think the U.S. considered before doing this? Is removing a leader by force ever justified? If the U.S. had not intervened, how might events have unfolded?

Written answer

2

Identify factors that made the operation successful. What could have gone wrong if intelligence had failed? Compare this to other historical extractions (e.g. Noriega).

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3

Why does he mention Putin here?

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4

“This is not regime change. This is regime roulette.” How can you interpret this metaphor? What scenarios could emerge from regime roulette?”

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5

What is on Trump's "wish list"? What leverage does the U.S. now have over Venezuela? Is such leverage legitimate or abusive?

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6

DONROE doctrine is a pun which describes Trump’s foreign policy orientation. Can you connect the pun to the real Monroe Doctrine?

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7

Why might Greenland be important to the United States? How might climate change affect Greenland’s value? Which global powers might be interested in Greenland and why? How might Denmark or Greenland itself react?

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8

Explain the acronyms TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and FAFO (f__k around and find out). Can you give any examples from US relations?

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9

In which category do you think Europeans are in Trump's view?

10

According to Bremmer, what changes might occur in the U.S. in the coming years, and what could be the potential consequences if the U.S. follows patterns similar to past revolutions in China and Russia?

Written answer

11

What does he mean when he says: Europeans have basically made a bet that the world was going to continue with an exceptionalist, indispensable America that would promote free trade and collective security and that the transatlantic relationship would be critical for the US. They made that bet ... for decades. That was a bad bet.

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12

What does Bremmer suggest Europe would need to do to ensure its own security? Do you agree with him that it might be too late? Why or why not? What are the possible consequences if Europe cannot catch up? Could diplomacy or other strategies help Europe mitigate the problem?

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13

Why might NATO be hesitant to respond strongly? What could be the consequences if NATO continues to do very little? If you were an advisor to a NATO country, what actions would you recommend to protect your country? Do you think hybrid/gray-zone tactics are harder to respond to than traditional military attacks?

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14

I think that the pressure that Europe is under as this war continues ... means that the likelihood it spills over into NATO frontline states is going up. And if that happens that's a much bigger risk than Ukraine losing a little more territory. Do you agree with this opinion?

Written answer

15

From a Czech security perspective, how relevant are Bremmer’s warnings about Russia and instability in Europe?

Written answer

Explanation

The U.S. must have explored several less extreme options. They could have increased diplomatic pressure or tightened economic sanctions. They might have offered Maduro a political exile deal. If none of those worked — which seems likely — they may have concluded that a military extraction was the only way to remove him quickly. In my view, they probably believed that delaying action would only strengthen his position.

If intelligence had been inaccurate, the operation might have collapsed. Maduro could have escaped, or U.S. forces could have walked into an ambush. There could have been significant casualties, which would have created a political disaster in Washington. It might also have triggered a wider conflict with Venezuelan loyalists or even with Russia or Cuba if their advisers had been harmed.

The military plan was extremely well done in terms of strategy and it was also exceptionally well executed. Putin wishes he could have pulled something like that off in Ukraine and of course he couldn't.

The metaphor suggests that the U.S. removed Maduro without having any clear idea of who or what would replace him. It implies a high‑risk gamble — that the next government might be even more unpredictable or hostile. Essentially, the U.S. has spun the political wheel and must now deal with whatever result appears.

“Whether it’s legitimate depends on one’s perspective. From a U.S. national‑security standpoint, forcing Venezuela to cut ties with hostile actors could be justified. However, from an international‑law perspective, it looks like coercion and could be considered an abuse of power. Personally, I think using military force to impose political demands crosses a line.

The Donroe Doctrine is a nickname for Donald Trump’s approach to Latin America. It refers to the Monroe Doctrine, which in 1823 declared that the Western Hemisphere should be free from European interference. The term suggests that Trump is reviving this idea in a more aggressive and personal way, aiming to reassert U.S. dominance in the region and limit the influence of rivals such as China, using economic pressure or military force rather than promoting democratic values.

Greenland is important to the United States because of its strategic Arctic location, especially for military defense and control of sea and air routes. Climate change makes Greenland more valuable by opening shipping routes and making natural resources easier to access.China and Russia are also interested: China for resources and influence, Russia for Arctic power and security. Denmark would likely oppose losing control, while Greenland would try to balance economic benefits with sovereignty and security concerns.

These acronyms are used to describe how Donald Trump behaves. TACO, which stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out,” is used mainly by his critics. It suggests that Trump often makes strong threats but then backs down instead of following through. FAFO, meaning “f__k around and find out,” is used by Trump’s supporters and people in his administration. It implies that if others do not comply with Trump’s demands, he will respond forcefully and impose serious consequences.

Bremmer suggests that the U.S. could face increasing political instability and social polarization, similar to Russia after the Soviet collapse. Internationally, this might weaken America’s influence, create uncertainty for allies, and make global conflicts harder to manage. The comparison highlights the risks of internal divisions spreading beyond national borders.

Europeans assumed the U.S. would always protect them and lead the world in trade and security. Bremmer says that was a wrong assumption because the U.S. may not always act that way.

European countries would need to increase defense budgets, modernize their militaries, and strengthen regional cooperation. Bremmer thinks it’s too late because building credible deterrence takes decades, and current military capabilities are insufficient. Consequences could include greater vulnerability to aggression, reliance on risky alliances, or instability in the region. Diplomacy, EU coordination, or multilateral agreements could help, but might not fully replace U.S. deterrence.

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