Uncertainty Terminology Challenge

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Uncertainty concepts in forensic science

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Nabanita

United Kingdom

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Uncertainty Terminology Challenge


Froggy Jumps Uncertainty Terminology ChallengeOnline version Uncertainty concepts in forensic science by Nabanita 1 What are the three dimensions of uncertainty in the forensic process ? a Location, Level, Nature b Time, Type, Magnitude c Data, Method, Confidence 2 How is epistemic uncertainty best described ? a Uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge that can be reduced by research b Uncertainty from data collection error only c Inherent randomness that cannot be reduced 3 What does accuracy measure in measurements? a How repeatable the measurement is b Closeness of the measured value to the true value c Speed of obtaining results 4 What does precision measure in measurements? a Proximity to true value b Repeatability/reproducibility of measurements c Time taken to obtain measurement 5 In LOCATION uncertainty, which sources are highlighted? a Time of day, Operator skill, Device age b Weather conditions, Sample color, Lab location c Missing data, Sampling uncertainty, Model uncertainty 6 Which term best describes Total Ignorance in the LEVEL dimension? a No idea of what is being looked for b We know what we are looking for but haven't been able to locate it c Cannot quantify the possibility of scenarios outlined 7 What is calibration in the context of uncertainty? a Replace worn instruments b Check/adjust precision and accuracy against a known standard c Improve data visualization 8 Which type of uncertainty is tied to inherent variability in systems? a Aleatoric (variability) uncertainty b Epistemic uncertainty c Calibration uncertainty 9 How does uncertainty affect the credibility of expert opinion when communicated properly? a Uncertainty should be hidden from jurors b Credibility is maintained if all uncertainties are transparently communicated to stakeholders c Only results, not uncertainties, are shared with stakeholders 10 In the probabilistic scale shown, what does Maybe (0.5) indicate for event likelihood? a Absolutely certain b Equal chance of occurrence/non-occurence c Not possible 11 What happens to uncertainty when you add random noise to data? a It increases b It decreases c It stays the same 12 Which action reduces uncertainty in an estimate? a Increase sample size b Ignore variability c Use fewer data 13 To decrease uncertainty in a study, you should: a Increase the sample size b Ignore variability c Decrease data collection 14 Which option reduces model uncertainty the most? a Keep the same data b Gather more representative data c Add unrelated features 15 Uncertainty from sampling typically decreases with: a fewer observations b larger sample size c more measurement error 16 If you include more randomness in the process, uncertainty will generally: a increase b stay the same c decrease 17 What is Evidence Dynamics? a The way evidence is presented in court b A process of collecting evidence c Any influence that changes, relocates, contaminates or obscures evidence prior to its preservation 18 What is Nature of Data? a Different types, qualitative and quantitative and information on their interdependence and inter-var b Data that is always perfect c Only numerical data 19 What does Missing/imperfect data mean? a Data are always complete b Data is irrelevant to the case c Data overlooked or unavailable at the time of collection 20 What is Measurement Uncertainty? a Fixed exact values b Relates to methods used by forensic science experts or equipment calibration issues c Unrelated to laboratory methods 21 What does Accuracy vs Precision mean? a Only accuracy matters in court b Accuracy is a measure of validity; Precision is a measure of reliability c Both mean the same 22 What is Sampling Uncertainty? a It only applies to statistics b Reference samples cannot capture every feature; samples lack information c It never affects results 23 What is Model Uncertainty? a Uncertainty in selection of models b Uncertainty in penalties c Uncertainty in data entry 24 What does Tolerance refer to in measurements? a Exact value only b Accepted range of variation of values c Zero variance allowed

Uncertainty Terminology Challenge

Froggy Jumps

About this activity

Created by

Download the paper version to play

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Uncertainty Terminology ChallengeOnline version

by Nabanita

What are the three dimensions of uncertainty in the forensic process ?

How is epistemic uncertainty best described ?

What does accuracy measure in measurements?

What does precision measure in measurements?

In LOCATION uncertainty, which sources are highlighted?

Which term best describes Total Ignorance in the LEVEL dimension?

What is calibration in the context of uncertainty?

Which type of uncertainty is tied to inherent variability in systems?

How does uncertainty affect the credibility of expert opinion when communicated properly?

In the probabilistic scale shown, what does Maybe (0.5) indicate for event likelihood?

What happens to uncertainty when you add random noise to data?

Which action reduces uncertainty in an estimate?

To decrease uncertainty in a study, you should:

Which option reduces model uncertainty the most?

Uncertainty from sampling typically decreases with:

If you include more randomness in the process, uncertainty will generally:

What is Evidence Dynamics?

What is Nature of Data?

What does Missing/imperfect data mean?

What is Measurement Uncertainty?

What does Accuracy vs Precision mean?

What is Sampling Uncertainty?

What is Model Uncertainty?

What does Tolerance refer to in measurements?