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TEMA 8. Criterios de Estimación de la Precisión de Pronósticos

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TEMA 8. Criterios de Estimación de la Precisión de Pronósticos

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Evalúa la precisión de tus pronósticos con criterios clave.

Created by

SONIA IBARRA IÑIGUEZ
SONIA IBARRA IÑIGUEZ
Mexico

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TEMA 8. Criterios de Estimación de la Precisión de Pronósticos
 

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TEMA 8. Criterios de Estimación de la Precisión de PronósticosOnline version

Evalúa la precisión de tus pronósticos con criterios clave.

by SONIA IBARRA IÑIGUEZ
1

Cuantifica la magnitud promedio de las diferencias entre lo pronosticado y lo observado, dando mayor peso a discrepancias grandes.

        
  
  
  
2

Tendencia sistemática a estimar por encima o por debajo de los valores reales.

     
  
  
3

es una estadística de error que considera la distancia media que existe entre cada punto real y ajustado para promediarlos

     
  
  
4

Rango estimado en el que se espera que caigan la mayoría de valores reales con un nivel de certeza.

     
  
  
5

Cantidad de observaciones utilizadas para calcular el pronóstico, que influye en la fiabilidad de las estimaciones.

     
  
  
6

Procedimiento de comparar pronósticos históricos con resultados observados para evaluar desempeño.

7

Discrepancia entre valor pronosticado y observado para una ocasión particular.

     
  
  
8

Ajuste del modelo para que las predicciones se alineen con datos actuales, reduciendo sesgos.

9

por sus siglas en ingles MAPE

        
  
     
10

POR SUS SIGLAS EN INGLES MSE

     
  
  
 
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