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Cost Guessing Bias

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Cost Guessing Bias

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About this activity

A bias that makes forecasts look sunnier than reality

Created by

Hathaway Heart
Hathaway Heart
United States

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Cost Guessing Bias
 

Cost Guessing BiasOnline version

A bias that makes forecasts look sunnier than reality

by Hathaway Heart
1

I am a bias that makes the future look rosier than it will be, nudging numbers toward brighter sums and dreams. What am I?

Hints

Governance efforts try to curb my influence.

It tends to underestimate real costs.

I often show up at the start of a project’s budget.

2

One estimate alone can be misleading, so I gather different voices and viewpoints. From models, data, and other sources I compare, until the truth begins to appear. What technique am I?

Hints

Often used with multiple data points or models.

Helps counter single-source estimation errors.

Involves cross-checking from different angles.

3

I’m the past you paid for, the cost you cannot undo. Smart decision-makers learn to ignore me. What am I?

Hints

Ignore it to avoid bias in planning.

Decisions should be based on future costs and benefits, not this.

It represents money already spent.

4

I’ve never been done before, so there’s no history to guide me. Instead, planners search for similar work and estimate by comparison. What type of project am I?

Hints

Solved by estimation of analogy

A project that has no similar previous projects to reference.

One of a kind

5

Estimation by looking at similar past projects and then adjusting for differences is a common method. What approach is this?

Hints

Often paired with explicit updates or benchmarks.

Requires adjustments for scale, scope, or context.

Uses past projects as a reference point.

 
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